The Oregon Ducks are riding high right now after their statement win over the No. 10 UCLA Bruins last week, thrusting them back into the national spotlight after a long road back to prominence following their Week 1 blowout loss to the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs.
Now that Oregon has secured its highest ranking of the season — No. 8 across most major polls — and is on the fringes of the College Football Playoff discussion, they will look to keep that momentum rolling forward in a major way. That will be put to the test this week with a road game against the California Golden Bears, a somewhat feisty team that has given the Ducks problems in the past.
Oregon has lost two of its past three games down in Berkley, and the Justin Wilcox defense has gotten the best of the Ducks in recent years. However, this Oregon team isn’t the same as those Oregon teams, and a lot has changed with Cal recently.
As we do every week, we wanted to look past the narratives and storylines for this game and dive into the numbers. On paper, who should have the advantage? Which team puts up the more impressive stats? Cal’s defense is said to be good, but do their numbers back up that notion?
Let’s find out in our Week 8 tale of the tape:
Bo Nix vs. Jack Plummer
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Breaking down the quarterback matchup
| Nix | vs | Plummer |
| 6-3 | Ht | 6-5 |
| 214 | Wt | 220 |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 153 | Comp | 158 |
| 214 | Att | 258 |
| 71.5 | Comp % | 61.2 |
| 1,809 | Yards | 1,754 |
| 8.5 | YPA | 6.8 |
| 17-3 | TD-INT | 12-3 |
Edge: Bo Nix
This is a pretty easy one. To be honest, at this point in the season there are going to be very few QB matchups where Nix does not have the edge. As a solidified Heisman Trophy contender, Oregon’s QB is playing the best football of his career, leading one of the most potent offenses in the nation. Jack Plummer is a solid player, but his 6.8 YPA and 61.5% completion percentage don’t hold a candle to Nix.
Oregon RBs vs. California RBs
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Breaking down Oregon’s backfield and UCLA’s backfield
| Oregon | vs | Cal |
| Irving | Ott | |
| Whittington | Brooks | |
| James | Moore | |
| 175 | Att | 164 |
| 1,078 | Yards | 869 |
| 6.2 | YPC | 5.3 |
| 8 | TDs | 6 |
| 1 | 100-yard games | 2 |
Edge: Oregon
Another one where the Ducks get the edge. Look, all credit California true freshman running back Jaydn Ott, who was originally committed to Oregon. He’s had an impressive season and will likely have a decorated career. His production can’t compare to the three-headed monster that Oregon trots out onto the field, though. With Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington shouldering the load, and true freshman Jordan James coming in with the 14J group and serving as a goal line back, the Ducks’ numbers take down this category easily.
Oregon Pass Catchers vs. California Pass Catchers
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Breaking down the receiving corps
| Oregon | vs | Cal |
| Franklin | Sturdivant | |
| Cota | Hunter | |
| Ferguson | Anderson | |
| Hutson | Latu | |
| 126 | Target | 154 |
| 93 | Rec | 101 |
| 73.8 | Catch % | 65.6 |
| 1,235 | Yards | 1,268 |
| 13.3 | YPR | 12.6 |
| 11 | TDs | 10 |
Slight Edge: Oregon
Another win for the Ducks. While Cal has more of a propensity to air the ball out, giving their receivers a bigger slice of the pie, the Ducks’ pass-catchers make more out of their opportunities. You can see that in the higher catch rage, higher yards per reception, and more touchdowns. This one is close, but I would take Troy Franklin and the Ducks over Sturdivant and the Bears.
When Oregon has the ball
(Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images)
Ranking Comparison (FBS Ranking)
Oregon vs. California
| Passing Offense | 272.6 (36th) | 275.1 (115th) | Passing Defense |
| Rushing Offense | 244.6 (5th) | 116.1 (27th) | Rushing Defense |
| Total Offense | 517.1 (5th) | 391.3 (82nd) | Total Defense |
| Scoring Offense | 42.2 (7th) | 22.57 (43rd) | Scoring Defense |
| Points Per Play | 0.534 (12th) | 0.340 (46th) | Points Per Play |
When Cal has the ball
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Ranking Comparison (FBS Ranking)
California vs. Oregon
| Passing Offense | 251.6 (57th) | 273.4 (115th) | Passing Defense |
| Rushing Offense | 119.0 (106th) | 110.6 (19th) | Rushing Defense |
| Total Offense | 370.6 (87th) | 384.0 (77th) | Total Defense |
| Scoring Offense | 23.3 (101st) | 29.00 (87th) | Scoring Defense |
| Points Per Play | 0.303 (100th) | 0.452 (105th) | Points Per Play |
Who has the edge?
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
I’m not sure we learned anything that we didn’t already know in this exercise. The Ducks are the better team. We had that idea coming in, and the numbers certainly back it up. They’re more prolific at QB, in the backfield, and slightly better at receiver, if anything. What’s made up for that lack of offense for Cal in the past has been a dominant defense, but the numbers don’t support that theory this year. The Golden Bears are 115th in passing defense, 82nd in total defense, and 43rd in scoring defense. There’s nothing that they do particularly well, and there seems to be a real chance that Bo Nix and the Ducks can blow their doors off this weekend.
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